OS
ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (ON)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 revenue was $1.469B (+1.6% q/q, -15% y/y), non-GAAP gross margin 37.6% and non-GAAP EPS $0.53; revenue was modestly above S&P Global consensus ($1.451B*) and EPS was in line ($0.532*), as underutilization continued to weigh on margins . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Management sees “signs of stabilization” across end markets; automotive likely bottomed in Q2 and is guided up in Q3, while AI data center nearly doubled y/y and remains a standout growth vector .
- Q3 2025 guide: revenue $1.465–$1.565B, non-GAAP GM 36.5–38.5%, non-GAAP EPS $0.54–$0.64, with ~900 bps under-absorption again embedded; OpEx guided down as restructuring savings materialize .
- Capital return: repurchased $302.3M in Q2 and 107% of YTD FCF; ending cash and ST investments ~$2.8B; FCF was $106.1M in Q2 versus $454.7M in Q1 on working-capital timing .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- “We are beginning to see signs of stabilization across our end markets,” with AI data center nearly doubling y/y; China EV ramps drove 23% sequential China revenue growth and automotive expected to grow in Q3 .
- Treo platform momentum (design funnel more than doubled q/q; >5M units shipped from EFK this year); first Treo revenues recognized and more products sampling, supporting long-term, accretive mix .
- Discipline on costs and capital return: OpEx trended down sequentially on restructuring; company returned 107% of YTD FCF via buybacks, and maintained liquidity of ~$4B including revolver .
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What Went Wrong
- Margins compressed on continued underutilization (≈900 bps), with non-GAAP gross margin at 37.6% (down from 45.3% y/y and 40.0% q/q) as utilization remains ~68% post-impairment .
- Automotive weak in US/Europe and softer “traditional” industrial; ISG faced strategy-driven E&O and repositioning headwinds (notably in H1), pressuring segment profitability .
- Free cash flow fell to $106.1M on working capital timing; inventory days remained elevated (208 days, including 87 days of SiC transition “bridge” inventory), though management expects reductions in H2 .
Financial Results
Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)
Key KPIs (Q2 2025)
- Inventory: 208 days total; includes 87 days of SiC “bridge” inventory for fab transitions .
- Distribution inventory: 10.8 weeks (target 9–11 weeks) .
- Utilization: ~68% post-capacity impairment basis (flat q/q) .
- Share repurchase: $302.3M in Q2; 6.9M shares at ~$43.26 avg price .
- Cash & ST investments: ~$2.8B at quarter-end .
Guidance Changes
Notes: Q3 guidance embeds ~900 bps under-absorption; utilization expected flat to slightly up; pricing environment stable; OpEx to trend lower from restructuring benefits .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are beginning to see signs of stabilization across our end markets, and we remain well-positioned to benefit from a market recovery.” — Hassane El‑Khoury, CEO .
- “AI growth will be limited by power delivery rather than compute alone… Onsemi is the only broad-based U.S. power semiconductor supplier addressing this challenge.” — CEO .
- “Our Q3 guide includes roughly 900 basis points of underutilization charges… every point of utilization is 25 to 30 basis points of gross margin improvement.” — Thad Trent, CFO .
- “We returned 107% of our free cash flow to shareholders on a year-to-date basis.” — CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Margin mechanics: Utilization remains the primary lever; ~900 bps under-absorption persists into Q3; fully utilized threshold improved to low-90s post-impairment, adding margin sensitivity per point .
- Automotive outlook: China EV ramps and PHEV designs (trench SiC) underpin recovery; NA/EU remain cautious; auto expected up in Q3 .
- ISG strategy: Continued focus on machine vision/ADAS; 2026 revenue headwind from legacy/non-core exits estimated at ~$50–$100M, inclusive of the 5% baseline exit .
- Inventory/pricing: Inventory peaked in Q2; expected to decline in H2; pricing environment stable; selective pricing used tactically .
- AI power: Sampling dual SPS; tied to XPU roadmaps; standard 12–18 month qual cycles .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $1.469B vs $1.451B*, EPS $0.53 vs $0.532*; 30 EPS estimates and 28 revenue estimates contributed; essentially in-line on EPS and a slight revenue beat. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implication: With stable pricing and flat-to-up utilization outlook, estimate revisions will likely focus on mix, AI ramp cadence, and the pace of auto/industrial stabilization .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term: Results were broadly in line with consensus; the narrative shifts to Q3 guide (flat-to-up revenue, EPS mid-$0.50s–$0.60s) and signs of end-market stabilization; watch under-absorption persistence and utilization trajectory for margin re-rate .
- Auto: China-led EV ramps and PHEV redesigns (trench SiC) support sequential recovery in Q3; breadth across BEV/PHEV and die/module flexibility aids share gains despite regional weakness .
- AI/Data Center: Power-delivery bottleneck plays to ON’s strengths; SPS and SiC JFET/MOSFET portfolio positioning suggests durable multi-year growth optionality .
- Mix & Portfolio: Treo platform momentum and ISG repositioning should enhance long-term margin quality (>60% Treo margins), while non-core exits (~5% revenue into 2026) ease structural drag .
- Cash discipline: Strong liquidity (~$2.8B cash/STI), capital intensity trending mid-single digits, and active buybacks (107% of YTD FCF) provide downside support through the cycle .
- Watch items: Utilization inflection (each point adds ~25–30 bps GM), China EV demand durability, pricing discipline, and the pace of inventory normalization (bridge inventory unwind) .
Appendix: Additional Data
Revenue by End-Market (Q2 2025; $USD Millions)
- Automotive: $733.2 (down from $906.9 y/y) .
- Industrial: $406.2 (down from $468.0 y/y) .
- Other (computing/consumer/comm): $329.3 (down from $360.3 y/y) .
Free Cash Flow (LTM as provided)
- LTM FCF $1,287.3M; LTM revenue $6,398.8M (company supplemental) .
Disclosures: Underutilization charges, special items, and non-GAAP definitions are detailed in the company’s reconciliation disclosures .